© 2011-2019 by Zack Smith. All rights reserved.
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
This is a fallacy in which a person thinks that an prior event caused some outcome, simply because it came before.
Its form |
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Examples
Several people looked up into the sky and then pulled out their umbrellas and lifted them above their heads. A few minutes later, it began raining. Therefore, deploying of umbrellas causes rain.
The priest prayed before a battle for the enemy army to be destroyed. In the end, as it happens, the enemy army was defeated. Therefore prayer causes military defeats.
A child got sick. It was said that a witch was doing something odd that looked like magic sometime before that. Therefore the witch put a curse on the child.
A famous lesbian moved to a city, and later a huge hurricane hit a city. Lesbianism causes hurricanes! A prominent American preacher actually made such a claim.
Weaknesses
The arguer is making the mistake of deciding that one prior event, rather than any others, or even a concurrent event, caused the second event or outcome. You should ask: Haven't you considered that something else might have caused B, other than A?
It may be that nothing in particular caused event B. Suppose a die was thrown and the number 6 came up. That's random. Nothing caused it.
Event A could be completely irrelevant, or unable to affect anything.
For example, if A is
Ten people prayed for Bobby who was ill
,
you can expect little or no effect, unless Bobby consequently
felt some performance anxiety.
It may be, as if often the case, that a complex interaction of events caused the event B. You can attack the simplistic view that only one event caused B.